Truth and Flat Tires

One of the first places I read about the philosophical importance of science was in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" by Robert Pirsig

"...Two kinds of logic are used, inductive and deductive. Inductive inferences start with observations of the machine and arrive at general conclusions. For example, if the cycle goes over a bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over a long, smooth stretch of road and there is no misfiring, and then goes over a fourth bump and the engine misfires, one can logically conclude that the misfiring is caused by the bumps. That is induction: reasoning from particular experiences to general truths.

Deductive inferences do the reverse. They start with general knowledge and predict a specific observation. For example, if, from reading the hierarchy of facts about the machine, the mechanic knows the horn of the cycle is powered exclusively by electricity from the battery, then he can logically infer that if the battery is dead the horn will not work. That is deduction.

Solutions of problems too complicated for common sense to solve is achieved by long strings of mixed inductive and deductive inferences that weave back and forth between the observed machine and the mental hierarchy of the machine found in the manuals. The correct program for this interweaving is formalised as scientific method.... "


I liked that book partly because Robert Pirsig used motorcycle maintenance problems to illustrate philosophy and science. So I am going to relate an event that happened to me yesterday to illustrate propaganda versus science.

Mary Ann had her first flat tire on her Burgman 400. I didn't have a tubeless tire repair kit, but I have used them before, so I called the motorcycle shop and was told "We don't stock tubeless tire repair kits because they don't work." Of course, the motorcycle shop would prefer for you to buy a new tire, so they have a motive to spread this story. And similar to propaganda, there is a fear factor. It is implied that if you use a repair kit, you may get another blowout at high speed and be killed. So now fear and propaganda are rearing their ugly heads in what should have been a simple repair. Finally, I did locate a kit at Canadian Tire, and it did the job in about 2 minutes, not including pumping up the tire. The nail hole was very small, and I have made many repairs like this that lasted the life of the tire - although once made a repair on a car tire that didn't hold up. But that was a much bigger hole, and since that experience, I have never used plugs when the hole is larger than the plug. With the patch in the Burgman's tire, I will check the air pressure more frequently, and very likely I will change the tire sooner rather than later.

I'm sure that many people would argue with me about whether patching a tire is unsafe. When I was younger I would not have believed that "tubeless tire repair kits don't work". But apparently the older and wiser you get, the more fearful you also get. Maybe that's why propaganda works so well on older people, and also explains that they are more likely to be conservative.

This is a bit of an aside, but I found a video that discusses skepticism and scientific method. I recently was on Richard Dawkin's web page and found a way to assess truthfulness, similar to my Bullshit Detector, except it is called "The Baloney Detection Kit". In this video, Michael Shermer has 10 ways to evaluate something for truth, with the key assumption being that you can determine the truth scientifically.